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Wednesday, October 09, 2013

IMF cuts India growth forecast to 3.8% in 2013 on weak demand; world growth forecast cut to 2.9%

India suffered the steepest cut in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) revised growth forecasts for the year, warning of the need to keep spending in check amid high inflation. The pessimistic outlook comes against a gloomy prediction for global growth, which IMF sees slumping to its lowest since the financial crisis. In its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the multilateral lender said that India will grow only 3.8% in the 2013-14 financial year against 5.6% projected in its July forecast, a cut of 1.8 percentage points.
In terms of factor cost, IMF sees the Indian economy growing 4.25% in 2013 and 5% in 2014, which is in line with private estimates. Goldman Sachs had last month cut the growth forecast for this year to 4% from 6%. BNP ParibasBSE 2.34 % expects the Indian economy to expand just 3.7%. In the year to March, growth had slipped to a 10-year low of 5%.
The finance ministry expects the economy to expand 5-5.5% in the current year, despite hitting a four-year low of 4.4% growth in the April-June quarter. The Reserve Bank of India also has the same range for 2013-14 growth. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said last week he expects growth to pick up in the second half of the year and pointed to core sector growth, higher exports and credit expansion as signs that this could happen, providing enough of a lift to lead to a revival.
IMF sees the Indian economy recovering to 5.1% in the next financial year, down from its earlier estimate of 6.2%. 

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